Here are my research papers on sports betting and prediction markets with links to summaries and free downloads.
Betting markets structure and pricing
Market Structure and Prices in Online Betting Markets (with Tadgh Hegarty), Oxford Economic Papers, 2026.
How bookmakers actually set odds. Evidence from 150,000 soccer matches
Estimating Expected Loss Rates in Betting Markets (with Tadgh Hegarty), Applied Economics, 2025.
How to estimate bookmaker margins and why loss rates on the average bet are higher than the usual calculation suggests
Risk Aversion and Favourite–Longshot Bias, Economica, 2024.
How favourite-longshot bias emerges when bookmakers are risk averse
Prediction markets, exchanges and taxation
Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market (with Constantin Bürgi & Wanying Deng), 2026.
Documents a strong pricing bias on Kalshi: low-priced contracts produce big losses
Agreeing to Disagree: The Economics of Betting Exchanges (2025).
How betting exchanges work and a model of how prices are set. Evidence from over 200,000 soccer matches
On Prices and Returns in Commercial Prediction Markets, Quantitative Finance, 2023.
How adding fees to prediction markets affects pricing
US Taxation of Gambling Winnings and Incentives to Bet, Journal of Gambling Studies, 2023.
How the current US federal income tax code encourages people to over-bet
Asian handicap
Forecasting Soccer Matches with Betting Odds (with Tadgh Hegarty), International Journal of Forecasting, 2025.
Soccer odds from the 1X2 market are biased. Asian Handicap odds are not
Returns on Complex Bets: Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer (with Tadgh Hegarty), Review of Behavioral Finance, 2024.
Documents an interesting anomaly in the Asian handicap market
The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games (with Tadgh Hegarty), Journal of Prediction Markets, 2023.
The Asian handicap market perfectly predicted the reduction in home advantage during Covid
Betting strategies, risk, and ruin
On Optimal Betting Strategies With Multiple Mutually Exclusive Outcomes, Bulletin of Economic Research, 2025.
Extends the Kelly criterion to bets with more than two possible outcomes
Ruin Probabilities for Strategies with Asymmetric Risk (2025).
Extends the famous Gambler’s Ruin problem for more realistic odds (not even-money bets).
Ambiguity and the Variance of Gambles, Economics Letters, 2025.
People think there is more risk when the probabilities are unknown. There isn’t.
Compounding an Edge? Expected Utility and the Puzzle of Parlay Betting (2026).
Economics says don’t play parlays.
Inside information trading in sports betting
How Does Inside Information Affect Sports Betting Odds? Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2025
In a realistic model, even a very small fraction of insiders collapses the market
On Estimates of Insider Trading in Sports Betting, Manchester School, 2025.
Previous estimates of the share of insiders are really just measuring margins